Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Wednesday, April 1 After Market Close


The graph to the right shows the two channels developing for the S&P. The bulls are trying to force the bears into the green rising channel, and the bears are trying to force the bulls into the red down sloping channel. The market participants place their buying and selling within pricing channels as it allows the winner (between the bulls and the bears) to control the general flow of the market.

As the graph illustrates, we are at the top edge of the red channel. If the bears can keep the price level below the top red line tomorrow and force pricing down to the red B, then they will contol the market and the bear market turn-around continues. And vice versa, if the bulls can force the price action up past the red line to the top green (towards the green A), then the bulls control the market. The bears have to stop price increases at this point and force the market down.

Thus, we are at an important point at tomorrows opening where the current rally that began on March 9 continues, or it is stopped and the market heads lower. So far, it appears the bulls are in control of this market. I expect a lot of volume tomorrow morning as the bears make a strong attempt to force the price down into the red channel.

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