The graphs to the right are fairly self explanatory, but I will provide additional analysis when time allows. Illustrated are three graphs, one for the current market, one for the market crash of 2002 (an optomistic scenerio), and one for the Great Depression (a pessimistic scenerio).
The Great Depression graph has two wave counts, one in red and one in blue, depending on perception. I'm inclined to go with the red wave count as being more representative if in fact that scenerio is currently unfolding. The vertical lines A and B in the two graphs represent where we are now when compared to the historical 2002 market crash and the Great Depression.
What pulled us out of the 2002 market crash was the real estate bubble. This might explain why our leaders are now recklessly printing money and throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks in their attempt to create another bubble, and by using inflation.
These graphs also explain why we are at a critical juncture in our economic situation. Using history as a guide, it appears we're now at the point where the market either goes up or down big-time in the next few weeks. History never exactly repeats, but as the graphs illustrate, it sure ryhmes a lot.
Where will the market go from here? Ask yourself, how confident to you feel about the future? Will things change for the better in the next few weeks? In the end, the market will decide this for us.
To be continued - -
Seems plausible, your 'potential repeat of the G.D. count, now.' My sense is that there seems to be little-to-no confidence, now, in the Obama economic team, and it seems plausible to have a capitulation sell-off soon.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see!
Keep up the good work, sir.
Thanks for your kind words.
ReplyDeleteI admit, I have a bearish view of the whole economic situation and for what I consider to be good reasons. But let me to assure you, I sure hope to God I'm wrong. No, the Obama team so far inspires little confidence, but more than that, they seem out of touch with our reality. I don't understand them... they're fiddling while Rome is burning.
About capitulaton, yes... we'll see. And the market is always right.
- - Mike