Chart 1:
Chart 1 above shows the 5-day moving averages for the CPC (green line), the CPCE (purple line), and the VIX (violet line) at market close. The S&P 500 is in gray.
At market open, the CPC and CPCE went to a spike up position and remained that way the rest of the day. The VIX was down at open, but spiked up by the end of the day as the market went down. All three indicators provide support for a trend reversal. Both the CPC and CPCE 5-day MA are at their lowest for the calendar year.
Chart 2:
The 10-day moving averages for chart 2 stayed in a downward running position at close, but the VIX is leveling. With the afternoon downturn, I expect an upward movement in market bearishness at the open tomorrow, which could spike both the CPC and CPCE into an upward position, thus indicating a trend change.
I shorted the S&P at 767 today for 25% of my speculative portfolio after it broke support as the two graphs below illustrate. The trade is profitable at the close, but will have tight stops in case the market decides to reverse tomorrow.
Chart 3:
Chart 4:
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