The market has rallied most of the day as we expected due to the end of quarter portfolio adjustments. The rally has been stronger than anticiapted with the bears putting up little fight.
The rally has affected the VIX and the CPC, which have now spiked down into bullish positions. But 30-min and 15-minute Stochastics are heavily overbought short-term and tomorrow will start a new quarter. It is likely the market will decline significantly tomorrow, but it might be prudent to wait until after 10:30 to 11:00 AM EST to see what direction the market is headed before going short. The problem is there might be a big drop overnight and you would miss any overnight decline in prices.
Everything favors a market correction to the downside at this juncture, but there are no gurantees. I will post tomorrow before market open and during the day if there are any significant developments.
After Close Update:
Wow! The bears did rnumber on the bulls prior to the close.
The VIX ticked back up into a bearish position, but the CPC is still slightly bullish. However, new data will come in after 6:00 PM EST, so I will update sometime thereafter to see if the signals have changed.
Both the 15-min and 30-min Stochastics say the market should drop tomorrow at open and during the day. The futures market points to an even to down market at open tomorrow, but this might change significantly. A price decline below 766.20 on the S&P (the March 20 low) would be final confirmation we have a bear market turn-around.
Thank you for your kind words.
ReplyDeleteI know I don't have a wide readership, but I have made a decision so far to keep that way. I could post this website address in many other blog comment sections to expand readerhsip, but I do this mainly for myself and for those who few that find it helpful.
Though there are few sites similar to this, I really don't want the world to know the the dumb public, as we are known by them, can make money reading institutional investors sentiments.
Sincerely,
Mike
Oh by the way, Emilio, I noticed you're from Argentina. I am a big fan of Ferfal at http://ferfal.blogspot.com/ and through him I have been following your situation pretty closely. Unfortunately, it sure appears the US is going the way of Argentina. Best of luck to you there!!
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